830
FXUS64 KHUN 022355
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT LOWER
CHANCES OF ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (20-40%).
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY).
- HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SETUP EARLIER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 81 DEGREES. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
REMAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW SW INTO NW ALABAMA AND NE
MISSISSIPPI SO FAR TODAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER TO HANG ON THOUGH INTO THE TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. FURTHER WEST, CLOUDS MAY LIFT AND
BECOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER (OR BREAK UP) A BIT EARLIER. THIS AND
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED THREAT
OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS) IN THOSE AREAS. LOWS SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER DROPPING INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS IT DOES SO.
AGAIN, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN THOSE AREAS.
FURTHER WEST, SOME MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-65. THIS SHOULD PRESENT A SIMILAR
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS AND
AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DOES
SEEM TO CHANGE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN A BIT AND FORCES THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT
CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST MUCH NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. IN THOSE AREAS, STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO LINGER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BUILD MORE HEAT INTO NW ALABAMA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD START
TO INCREASE SOME AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE 95 TO 99
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CLOUD COVER MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GETS PULLED FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS A BIT
MORE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD WARM THINGS UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THOUGH A BREAK FROM CLOUDS AND RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY IT SEEMS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT, ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED (VERY WEAK
FORCING). THIS TROUGH AXIS STALLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. BETTER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH BETTER
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 60 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SHEAR LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
TAFS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE INCLUDED IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS ON MONDAY, SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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