127
FXUS64 KHUN 031045
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 937 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT LOWER
CHANCES OF ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (20-40%).
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING IN NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER, THIS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, HOWEVER, CAUTION IS STILL ENCOURAGED
ON ROADWAYS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 TODAY. WEAK LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LIGHT TO TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THIS IS
HAPPENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT RESULTED IN SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT
WHEN THE CONCERN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS THAT MAY CAUSE LOWER VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND WE WILL MONITOR IN CASE
CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST ON MONDAY WHEN A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA. THIS WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-45%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF
I-65 DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. STILL IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT, TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE TOMORROW TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER AREAS EAST OF
I-65. WHILE PERIODS OF SUN MAY PEEK OUT, EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EACH DAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS OVER FAR NW AL ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS TOPPING OUT IN
THE 80S. ENJOY THE "COOLER" WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS, BECAUSE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUMMER HEAT IS COMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MAKES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SENDS A DISTURBANCE INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS, REMAINING
UP IN THE OH VALLEY. NOT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GET DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT THE HEAT INDEX WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE IT IS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS, HOWEVER WITH MOST OF US RETURNING BACK TO SCHOOL THIS
WEEK, HEAT SAFETY NEEDS TO REMAIN A PRIORITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER SHIFTS OVER BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN FULLY TO BOTH SITES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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