121
FXUS64 KHUN 040836
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
336 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 930 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH COVERAGE REMAINING HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM 20-60% TUESDAY TO 20-80% ON
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.
- AFTER SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO
30-60% SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY-
MONDAY).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., BRINGING LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A HIGHER LIGHTNING AND WIND
THREAT (IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT). MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN ADDITION TO DCAPE OVER
1000 J/KG. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE FUELED BY SLOW STORM
MOTION (LESS THAN 10 KTS) IN ADDITION TO PWATS IN THE 1.7-1.9"
RANGE. IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE SOMEONE WHO SEES RAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
BE SURE TO USE CAUTION IF OUT ON THE ROADWAYS AS PONDING OF WATER
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED
OVER WESTERN GEORGIA. UNDER IT'S CYCLONIC FLOW (FROM THE NNE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY), A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
WERE MOVING AROUND THE LOW. THESE PASSING DISTURBANCE WERE
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
EAST OF I-65. THESE SURFACE BASED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH A
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THE OTHER DAY TO OUR EAST, PLENTY OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINED, RANGING FROM 1.2" TO 1.3" WEST, TO 1.7" EAST.
GIVEN THAT UPWARDS OF 1/2" OF RAIN HAD FALLEN, NIGHT TIME SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND LIGHT WINDS, A DEVELOPMENT OF FOG COULD
OCCUR IN THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE. FOG FORMATION WOULD
BE MORE PROBABLE IN/NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED WETTING RAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S.
THROUGH TUE/WED, THE AFORMENTIONED LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE
GA/SC REGION, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING MORE TO THE
EAST AS WE GO INTO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE MEAN
NORTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THIS LOW BRINGING MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ACROSS THE AREA, DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN HAZARDS POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW (LOWER HEIGHTS) AND CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR
ANOTHER "COOL" EARLY AUG, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS TUE SHOULD FADE AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING, IN A SIMILAR MANNER THAT WE HAD TODAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW
MUCH AND WHERE WETTING RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/10"), PATCHY FOG
FORMATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TUE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE LOWER 70S. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN AS WE GO
INTO WED. THE LOW SHOULD FINALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BASIN HELPS RETURN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE VALLEY. THIS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS
FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90), AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EAST WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST. SHOWERS AGAIN SHOULD END WED EVENING, WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS AS LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. A TAD WARMER THU
AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. HIGHS SHOULD
RISE FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST, WITH HEAT INDEXES
FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. AT THE MOMENT, WE'LL KEEP
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS THU.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE SEASONABLE LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL EXPAND
AND PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN HEAT CONCERNS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%)
FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EAST OF I-65. THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL, LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE EAST OF I-65. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH ABOVE 100 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME,
VALUES REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS, PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AT KHSV TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED AS A PROB30 GROUP.
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EXISTS TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE OFFICIAL TAF PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC
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