651
FXUS64 KHUN 060232
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
932 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY (AND MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST). HOWEVER, A LOW-MEDIUM (20-60%)
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THURSDAY-WEDNESDAY. THESE
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR AND WINDS
ARE SLACKING WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS ALREADY.
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR YOUR MORNING SCHOOL COMMUTE TOMORROW, WATCH OUT FOR ANY
LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG, AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. ON
THURSDAY, A SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND A BROAD CANADIAN CENTERED TROUGH
AND MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD. WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OUT OF HERE, THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH FOCUS FOR STORMS TOMORROW. BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND DIURNAL HEATING, EXPECTING A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. STORMS CAN
PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WILL NOTE THAT
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK ONCE AGAIN, SO STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WHERE THE
GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ARE TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE FROM
NE/OK/MO INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
(20-50%) BUT HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL BE FOUND IN NE AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. WILL BE MONITORING WHAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
OUR NW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEE IF ANY OF THAT IS ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE TN VALLEY. IF SO, POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, PRECIP WILL START IN THE MORNING MAINLY
TO OUR NORTH AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (30-70%). DESPITE THIS, HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE IT IS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES OUTSIDE. MOST OF US WILL ALSO BE IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) BOTH DAYS AS WELL. IT'S NOT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER PLEASE BE SAFE OUT IN THE HEAT!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM RIDGING WILL SET UP BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WSW FLOW AND KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. UNDER BROAD RIDGING, HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 90S PAIRED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL QUICKLY BRING HEAT CONCERN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON, YET CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW 105 CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD AN
ADVISORY LOOK MORE LIKELY AS THE NEW WORK WEEK DRAWS CLOSER.
PAIRED WITH HEAT CONCERNS, EACH AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING, AFTERNOON STORMS WILL POSE LITTLE TO NO STRONG TO
SEVERE RISK. RATHER, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IN WEAKLY FORCED REGIMES LIKE THIS, THINGS CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY REGARDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT AND/OR NEAR THE
TERMINALS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 01Z, 02Z AT THE LATEST PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO MVFR AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS. BEYOND THIS,
VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR KHSV THAT COULD CREATE
TEMP VIS REDUCTIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS
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