769
FXUS64 KHUN 070126
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- DAILY AFTERNOON LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- NWS HEAT RISK RISES TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RISK TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASES TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF
4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LATE THIS EVENING ALONG
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT -- WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS, LOCALIZED
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER
TODAY (MOST ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA). A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT (ALONG WITH
DIURNAL HEATING) TO GENERATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (20-50%). WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2", LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN, BUT LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, A
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR PATTERN ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM, HUMID DAYS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%)
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN WEAKENS/DISSIPATES BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE WILL
LOWER RAIN CHANCES TEMPORAILY ON SUNDAY (10-30%), WITH HEAT COMING
TO THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERN WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
100 TO 105 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON (THANKS TO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE). AS A RESULT, HEAT/HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF OUR MESSAGING. EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES) IN
MOST LOCATIONS. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4)
THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
CATEGORY.
COINCIDING WITH THESE HEAT CONCERNS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
PRIMED FOR LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TSRA MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION PREVENTED A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page