090
FXUS64 KHUN 071452
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) NWS HEATRISK FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASES TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A SIMILAR SETUP TODAY AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP, LIKELY
INITIALLY FOCUSED IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NE AL BEFORE SPREADING
WESTWARD. SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG,
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG
OF DCAPE AND PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 70S. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT GET ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
BASED ON PREVIOUS NIGHTS OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS, WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE LOCAL FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS THE
SAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THEREFORE, EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS. OVERALL, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. FOG CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT REMAIN LOW, BUT WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WHERE THE RAIN
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON (THANKS TO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE). AS A RESULT, HEAT/HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF OUR MESSAGING. EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES) IN
MOST LOCATIONS. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4)
THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
CATEGORY.
COINCIDING WITH THESE HEAT CONCERNS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
PRIMED FOR LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FOG HAS YET TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MUCH SO FAR THIS MORNING;
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF AT LEAST MVFR VIS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z. THEREFORE, MAINTAINED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT BOTH SITES. ANY FOG WILL THEN LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THE MAIN
FOCUS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE REMAINS UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, ANY
STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS AND VIS. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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