776
FXUS64 KHUN 080319
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1019 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) NWS HEATRISK FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASES TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SEVERAL WEAK LEVEL TROUGH AXES CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SW INTO NE TEXAS AND FURTHER
EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN ALABAMA THAT EXTENDS NE INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL TENNESSEE. SOME CAMS SHOW A LOW CHANCE (20-40%)
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, BEFORE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCING WITH A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AFTER
4 AM MERGES WITH IT. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE AL/MS
BORDER THIS EVENING AND INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS COULD
ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVES EAST TOWARDS NW ALABAMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON SATURDAY, EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING AND ESPECIALLY DENSE FOG. THIS
FORCING, DESPITE THE ATMOSPHERE BEING WORKED OVER A BIT, SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CONTINUE TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. EXPECT MORE OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE
MORE NEAR/WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE RE-ENFORCING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INTO NW TENNESSEE, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXPECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE. PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND INSTABILITY IS STILL AMPLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LOOKS A BIT HARDER TO REACH BASED ON
FORECAST INSTABILITY OVERALL THOUGH. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING THOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN NW ALABAMA TOWARDS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER TOMORROW
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS
CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH RANGE (40-60%) IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-60%) COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD
NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE, THUS HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER AND
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY LATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS OVER 2") AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS, WE WILL BE PRIMED FOR PULSE CONVECTION EACH DAY (SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE) CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS,
IN ADDITION, HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98 TO
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A FEW OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) CATEGORY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
BACKBUILD JUST NORTH OF THE KMSL TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. THUS, A
VCTS WAS INCLUDED PREDOMINANTLY AT KMSL WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 00Z
AND 01Z FOR A POSSIBLE TSRA IMPACTING THE THAT TERMINAL. THIS
COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS OR VSBYS TO THAT TERMINAL. FURTHER
EAST, ACTIVITY HAS PUSHES WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE KHSV TERMINAL.
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS WERE KEPT THERE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
NEAR THE KMSL TERMINALS TO DISSIPATE AROUND 1Z. THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BE A
DECENT SETUP FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG.
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REVISED LOWER IF DENSER FOG DEVELOPS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 13Z (MAYBE A HOUR OR TWO LAYER IF
DENSER FOG FORMS). THEN PROB30 GROUPS (MAINLY 18Z TO 23Z) FOR
TSRA ACTIVITY WERE INCLUDED IN THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA DEVELOPMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...KTW
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