375
FXUS64 KHUN 080810
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) NWS HEATRISK FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASES TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE WATCHING
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY POPPED UP OVER THE LAST HOUR IN
MISSISSIPPI AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS NORTH ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS ALABAMA. A SHIELD
OF CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY, SO WE STILL EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LASTING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, RIVER
VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
COUPLE SURFACE STATIONS OVER NE AL HAVE REPORTED LOWER VIS AND
CIGS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE WHAT WE KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS - HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
ANY FOG WILL THEN LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY ONCE
AGAIN. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DAMPEN TEMPERATURES A
BIT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
ARE ALL THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST, WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN UNCHANGED, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS SHOULD ANY BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
ALSO, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS
CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH RANGE (40-60%) IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-60%) COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD
NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE, THUS HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER AND
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY LATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS OVER 2") AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS, WE WILL BE PRIMED FOR PULSE CONVECTION EACH DAY (SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE) CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS,
IN ADDITION, HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98 TO
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A FEW OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) CATEGORY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
OTHER THAN THE RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT THE TERMINALS AT
ISSUANCE. THIS WILL LARGELY REMAIN, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, CONTINUED THE TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VIS AND
CIGS TO MVFR BETWEEN 8-12Z THIS MORNING FOR BOTH TAF SITES. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING.
THEN, AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE FOCUS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
AS LOWER VIS AND CIGS. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE IS LOW. EXPECTING THIS OVERALL ACTIVITY TO
THEN WANE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR STORMS
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
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