341
FXUS64 KHUN 081118
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) NWS HEATRISK FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASES TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE WATCHING
THE FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY POPPED UP OVER THE LAST HOUR IN
MISSISSIPPI AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS NORTH ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS ALABAMA. A SHIELD
OF CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY, SO WE STILL EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LASTING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, RIVER
VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
COUPLE SURFACE STATIONS OVER NE AL HAVE REPORTED LOWER VIS AND
CIGS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE WHAT WE KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS - HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
ANY FOG WILL THEN LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY ONCE
AGAIN. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL DAMPEN TEMPERATURES A
BIT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
ARE ALL THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST, WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN UNCHANGED, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS SHOULD ANY BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
ALSO, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS
CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH RANGE (40-60%) IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
IN MOST GUIDANCE. THUS, MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-60%) COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD
NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE, THUS HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER AND
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY LATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS OVER 2") AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL CREATE MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
THUS, WE WILL BE PRIMED FOR PULSE CONVECTION EACH DAY (SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE) CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS,
IN ADDITION, HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98 TO
105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) THREAT LEVEL IN MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A FEW OF THE METRO AREAS (MSL, DCU, HSV) IN THE MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) CATEGORY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MOST OF THE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS MORNING IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER NE AL. ALTHOUGH, THE VIS AT
MSL DID DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR A BRIEF TIME. OVERALL, NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS MUCH MORE THIS MORNING AND
ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED. LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS LOWER VIS AND CIGS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE OVERALL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
THEN DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE THING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page