073
FXUS64 KHUN 090419
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 819 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING BUT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.
- HIGH HEAT INDEX AND HEATRISK VALUES MAY NECESSITATE HEAT
PRODUCTS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MODEL DATA CORROBORATED WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY ALIGNED WITH A MID/UPR TROUGH TO OUR WEST
EXTENDING FROM E TEXAS NEWRD TO WESTERN TN/KY. THIS IS SEPARATING
AN AIR MASS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS)
FROM AN AIR MASS WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THE W-N (DESPITE
SIMILAR DEW POINTS IMMEDIATELY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY). WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY PLACED WELL TO OUR WEST, IF ANY CONVECTION
WERE TO BECOME ORGANIZED DUE TO BROADER DYNAMIC FORCING, IT WOULD
TEND TO OCCUR THERE. LITTLE ELSE APPEARS TO EXIST AT THIS TIME TO
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
SO SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LOW
PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE, IT'S NOTED THAT MID/UPR CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY CLEARING OVER THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LGT
WINDS, MOIST SOILS, AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS COULD LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SMALL AREAS OF FOG APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING ALREADY IN PARTS OF NE AL, BUT THE FORECAST FOR FOG PER
THE TYPICAL FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT.
THE QUESTION FOR TOMORROW IS THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THERE EXISTS A RATHER WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS PER THE HI-RES MODELS REGARDING THE COVERAGE, WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER COVERAGE THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE UPR TROUGH ENCROACHING UPON THE AREA. WITH OUR REGION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
EXPECTATIONS FOR BETTER OR AT LEAST SIMILAR DYNAMIC FORCING, IT
WOULD STAND TO REASON THAT COVERAGE MIGHT BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC
SITUATION ON SUNDAY, WITH PROSPECTS FOR BETTER INSTABILITY (ML
CAPES PERHAPS ~3500 J/KG). SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH AN
WIND SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL
TROUGH, BUT STILL RATHER ANEMIC OVERALL WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS. SO, STORM ORGANIZATION WILL STILL BE
MINIMIZED, WITH A LOW/MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL STILL TEND TO BE SLOW, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
SLOW AS THAT ON SATURDAY WITH BOTH SPEED AND PROPAGATION ALLOWING
FOR OVERALL SLIGHTLY BETTER FORWARD MOVEMENT.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ANOTHER HOT, SOUPY DAY WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE AREA, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 F (MAYBE HIGHER IF
CLOUDS/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED), BUT HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE ~ 100 F AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE A SLIGHT TILT WITH RIDGE
REINFORCEMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR TILTING OF THE STALLED UPR
TROUGH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION, WHILE THIS FEATURE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND LESS DEFINED. NEVERTHELESS, WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FEATURE REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE FOR MONDAY,
AND PART OF TUESDAY, THE WEAK DYNAMICS WILL STILL HELP TO ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY TEND TO
FAVOR EASTERN AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER FORCING AND
ALIGNED WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS (BUT ALSO
ELEVATED HEATING FROM THE PLATEAU). THUS POPS WILL BE HIGHER
GENERALLY IN THE EAST BOTH DAYS. WITH THE REGION STILL ENSCONCED
IN THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, ALL HEAT-RELATED DATA SUGGEST HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ESE VIA UPPER FLOW INTO MISSOURI AND
KENTUCKY WITH A WEAKER TROUGH AXIS HINTED AT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SW INTO NW GA AND NE AL. THIS FORCING COULD
PRODUCE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY THAT INCREASES IN COVERAGE AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS A TAD LOWER IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AS THIS OCCURS, SO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SBCAPE COULD BE BETWEEN
2000 AND 4000 J/KG THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO.
WITH HIGH PWATS CONTINUING, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. DCAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND OR OVER 1000 J/KG AND SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT DRY AIR ALOFT
FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO, SO SOME STRONGER DOWNBURSTS LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION
LASTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING, BUT WOULD EXPECT
BY 10 PM THIS WOULD OCCUR (SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO ACTIVITY
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT). NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON THURSDAY.
THIS LACK OF CLEARING DESPITE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.
MODELS DIFFER CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME KEEP A WEAK LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA NW INTO MISSOURI. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA IN A WETTER PATTERN WITH A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER
SOLUTION PUSHES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ON
THURSDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH DOES STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD WARM THINGS UP SOME MORE.
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THIS
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE, 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE CLIMB INTO A 25 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE (GFS 28 TO 29
DEGREE RANGE). THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF WITH GOOD INSOLATION TO
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE UNFORTUNATELY.
WITH SURFACE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH. THIS MAY BEGIN ANOTHER MINI-HEAT WAVE
PERIOD OVER THE AREA, WHERE HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED
CONVECTION OCCURS. WHICH SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT
OF A LIMITING EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT. EITHER
WAY, IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND THE HEAT WAVE COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
EARLIER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
AREA, WITH REMNANT AREAS OF -RA AFFECTING VICINITIES OF KHSV AND
KMSL TERMINALS AT PRESENT. THIS IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY ~01Z. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA MAY INSTIGATE SHRA OVERNIGHT, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE, REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA IS ANTICIPATED WITH HEATING
TOMORROW, WITH CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT KHSV/KMSL ARISING ~18-00Z,
ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. FOG MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT PRESENT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KDW
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