067
FXUS64 KHUN 100417
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL AS WELL. THESE CHANCES
BECOME LOW CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGH HEAT INDEX AND HEATRISK VALUES MAY NECESSITATE HEAT
PRODUCTS BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
EARLIER RAINFALL HAS DISSIPATED. SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN MADISON AND MORGAN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY, WHERE AT
LEAST 2 TO OVER 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL. THIS PRODUCED SOME
FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE SOMERVILLE, AL AREA. SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES AS WELL.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN MOST AREAS ARE ALREADY LOW 0 TO 3 DEGREES
DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS EVENING.
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR IN ALABAMA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON SUBSIDENCE
SEEN IN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ONWARD, BELIEVE
CLEARING WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
FELL AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY IN PLACE, LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE FOG...POSSIBLY
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
MOST GUIDANCE BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD SOME DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THEY DO LEAVE THE TROUGH AXIS THAT FORCED
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY OVER NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING WSW INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THANKFULLY, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
MUCH WEAKER. HOWEVER, MODELS DO SHOWS SOME FORCING ALOFT ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. THE LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW CHANCES (~30-40%)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP. PWATS
WILL REMAIN HIGH, BUT LESS COVERAGE WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW FOR A
LOWER THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER WITH
A LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 88 TO 93 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT VALUES OF 105 DEGREES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCT AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY, SO A LOW
CHANCE 20-40 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWATS
REMAINING IN PLACE, BUT POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS OVER THE
PAST WEEKEND. HIGHS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER WITH A LOWER COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AGAIN, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
AGAIN, BUT VALUES OF 105 DEGREES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER INTO
THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. NBM GIVES UP
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT HIGH BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE, SO
THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED DOWN IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL COVERAGE FLASH FLOODING MAY REMAIN A
THREAT. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD REALLY LOWER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MID 90S AT LEAST BY FRIDAY (MAYBE THURSDAY). BASED
ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS COULD BE HOTTER,
MAYBE SOME UPPER 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY
A HEAT WAVE THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN GUIDANCE
LOOK A BIT LOW BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY, MOST MODELS BUILD THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH SOME 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST, WE COULD CLIMB OVER THE
CENTURY MARK DURING THAT PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE
NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
CURRENT STORMS OVER KHSV WILL COME TO AN END BY 10/01Z, WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 10/02Z AT KMSL AND 10/03Z AT
KHSV. FOG FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THEM
DOWNWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IF VSBYS BEGIN TO TANK EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE AND
GIVE WAY TO SCT/FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARND 15KFT, WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED AFTER 10/14Z AT BOTH SITES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...12
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