681
FXUS64 KHUN 101643
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 932 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HIGH CHANCE OF MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F) AREA WIDE
BY LATE WEEK. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SW FLOW
AND ALLOW DEW POINTS AND PWATS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THE
CONTINUED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THIS
WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLARITY FROM MODELS, CURRENT THINKING IS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS OF THE LAST
TWO DAYS. THIS WOULD HAVE STORMS INITIATING AROUND NOON ALONG THE
RIDGE LINE IN NE AL AND TO OUR NW IN MS/TN. WHILE SPATIAL
COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE ESE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR THERMODYNAMICS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH ALL
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. OVER THE WEEKEND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF RAIN RATES OF
4-5"/HOUR WERE OBSERVED AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS
POSSIBILITY. FOR LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY, HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH HIGHS NUDGING INTO THE LOW 90S. WITH DEWS POINTS IN
THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH DUAL
THREAT OF HEAT AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAKE SURE TO TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS FOR HEAT AND KEEP AN EAR OUT FOR THUNDER.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
OVER THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE CONTINUED SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN OUR DIURNAL STORMS CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT WILL MEAN
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY AND ALL STORMS. WEDNESDAY FORWARD, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY NORTH AND BEGIN TO LOWER OUR
AFTERNOON POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. IN RETURN, HEAT WILL
BECOME OUR PRIMARY CONCERN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S LOOKS TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES NEAR AND ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
A HIGH CHANCE OF HEAT PRODUCTS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY. FOR ANYONE
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLEASE MAKE SURE TO TAKE
PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, REMAIN HYDRATED,
AND WEAR LOSE LIGHT CLOTHING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD REALLY LOWER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MID 90S AT LEAST BY FRIDAY (MAYBE THURSDAY). BASED
ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS COULD BE HOTTER,
MAYBE SOME UPPER 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY
A HEAT WAVE THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN GUIDANCE
LOOK A BIT LOW BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY, MOST MODELS BUILD THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH SOME 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST, WE COULD CLIMB OVER THE
CENTURY MARK DURING THAT PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE
NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VCTS WILL RETURN TO THE TAF AROUND 22Z. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS IS LOW, HOWEVER AMENDMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY IF A STORM DOES MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. ANY
EXISTING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG
BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE WHOLE AREA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR 8/17 THROUGH
8/19. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
95-97 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page