106
FXUS64 KHUN 110012
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
712 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HIGH CHANCES OF MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F) OR HIGHER
AREAWIDE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE
NEEDED.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
MOVING ESE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. COVERAGE OVER OUR CWA DOES SEEM
LOWER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO OUR SOUTH. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN WITH THREATS OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS PRESENT WILL DISSIPATE
JUST AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCES OF
FOG WILL AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES IN VALLEYS AND
ALONG WATER WAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
OVER THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE CONTINUED SW FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN OUR DIURNAL STORMS CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT WILL MEAN
ADDITIONAL DAYS OF THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY AND ALL STORMS. WEDNESDAY FORWARD, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY NORTH AND BEGIN TO LOWER OUR
AFTERNOON POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. IN RETURN, HEAT WILL
BECOME OUR PRIMARY CONCERN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S LOOKS TO PUSH HEAT
INDICES NEAR AND ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
A HIGH CHANCE OF HEAT PRODUCTS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY. FOR ANYONE
PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLEASE MAKE SURE TO TAKE
PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, REMAIN HYDRATED,
AND WEAR LOSE LIGHT CLOTHING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD REALLY LOWER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MID 90S AT LEAST BY FRIDAY (MAYBE THURSDAY). BASED
ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS COULD BE HOTTER,
MAYBE SOME UPPER 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY
A HEAT WAVE THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN GUIDANCE
LOOK A BIT LOW BASED ON FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY, MOST MODELS BUILD THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE. THE HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH SOME 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST, WE COULD CLIMB OVER THE
CENTURY MARK DURING THAT PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE
NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AT TAF ISSUANCE, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS IN PROGRESS ~25NMI WEST
OF KMSL, MOVING EAST 5-10KT. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAF FOR KMSL EARLY
IN THE TAF. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE
GO INTO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND KMSL; CONFIDENCE HOWEVER WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK SHOULD BECOME SW
5-10KT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF A HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE
CU/TCU DURING THE COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE
A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN BOTH TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE WHOLE AREA IN A
MODERATE TO A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
AUGUST 18TH THROUGH AUGUST 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95-97 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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