736
FXUS64 KHUN 121333
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
833 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 157 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS AND UPGRADES LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING (OTHER
THAN SOME VERY LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA). THIS
FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR INTENSE HEATING THIS MORNING, WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S, THIS WILL PUSH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A NWS HEAT RISK OF MAJOR IMPACT (LEVEL
3/4) AND WET-BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN THE 85-90 DEGREES WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
COUPLED WITH THE HEAT THREAT WILL BE ANOTHER CONDITIONAL, LOW
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID/LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CAMS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE TIMING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA AND
LOCATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. WHAT WE CAN SAY IS THAT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING (LIKELY 2 TO 8 PM). WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WE'LL HAVE THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. TONIGHT, WE'LL AGAIN NEED TO WATCH
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER
(AND THAT'S A BIG IF), STEERING FLOW COULD TAKE A FEW CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED, SUBSEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AN/OR OVERNIGHT (SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT). NONE OF THE 06Z/12Z HI-
RES GUIDANCE REALLY SUPPORTS THIS, BUT A CURRENT GLANCE AT THE
LOCATION OF STORMS OVER INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND THE POSITION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES, SUGGEST THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH AND AT LEAST BRUSH OUR AREA. THUS, WILL
LEAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK, WITH A HEAT DOME UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES WILL THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. NWS HEAT RISK
HIGHLIGHTS A MAJOR RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
DURING THE DAY (AND OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S). THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BY FRIDAY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT ANY PULSE CONVECTION FROM FORMING AND POPS
WILL DROP TO BELOW 10%.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
EXTENDED RANGE DATA FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (CENTERED FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST) WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND, WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS PERHAPS
REACHING 600 DAM. THUS, EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE M-U 90S
FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY (AND PERHAPS EXCEEDING 100F IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS). ALTHOUGH A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY OCCUR ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (PRIMARILY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL), RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW AND THERE IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE THAT THE PRE-EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, PERHAPS WITH AN
UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING DUE TO HEAT INDEX READINGS
SURPASSING 110F. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MAY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PERHAPS ALLOWING NW FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEMS SLIDES INTO THE REGION AND SCATTERED TSRA
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT TIMING IS ~18-22Z, HOWEVER
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO ADJUST ARRIVAL TIMING.
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT CAN REDUCE VIS, AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST
IF STORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE WHOLE AREA IN A
MODERATE TO A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
AUGUST 18TH THROUGH AUGUST 22ND. THE HIGH RISK INCLUDES LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON, TO ATHENS, NEW HOPE AND FORT
PAYNE. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THAT LINE.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE MODERATE RISK LOCATIONS
AND A 60-80% CHANCE FOR THOSE IN THE HIGH RISK AREAS FOR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95-97 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS
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