019
FXUS64 KHUN 130742
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
242 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 242 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE FROM THURSDAY-SUNDAY, BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST).
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED, LEAVING THE TN VALLEY
WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WHERE THERE ARE GAPS,
FOG WILL DEVELOP, HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE, ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OUR WAY. THUS, NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE IN SOUTHERN IL AND WEST KY A LITTLE WHILE AGO THAT WERE LEFT
OVER FROM AN MCS HAVE FIZZLED OUT AT THIS HOUR. BUT WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ANY OF ITS LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SEE IF
IT REGENERATES ANY CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN THE TN VALLEY. THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SOUTHERN IL IS TAKING THE SAME
PATH AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION, SLIDING DOWN THE RIDGE, IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. IF ANY CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
REDEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING OFF THOSE BOUNDARIES, THEY COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2", AND A LOW RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WITH MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG
AND DCAPE 1000-1250 J/KG.
THE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TODAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE POPS, BUT INCREASE TEMPS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN NE AL AND THE MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE IT'S UP TO 106 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN FACT, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. POPS TODAY ARE ONLY 10-20% WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AS LINGERING
BOUNDARIES COULD DEVELOP SOME STORMS. THEY TOO WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS IN ANY STRONGER STORM,
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL EXPAND AS IT BUILDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND (WITH THE RIDGE
LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY). WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEFLECTING STORM CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH OF
OUR REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS BROAD
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THAT SAID, INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL ON FRIDAY MAY STILL INITIATE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVE MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE AND SHIFT WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, WHICH MAY
ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL, WHERE OUTFLOW FROM MORE EXTENSIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA/CENTRAL AL MAY ENTER THE REGION).
WITH THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE IMPACTS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE (REACHING THE M-U 90S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY). ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A DEEPER MIXING LAYER MAY LOWER
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AL
(ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY), HEAT INDEX BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE
104-110F RANGE (PERHAPS 110-112F IN URBAN LOCATIONS), AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE M-U 70S WILL ONLY COMPOUND IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES)
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO AZ/NM EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW WNW FLOW ALOFT OF
10-20 KNOTS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY
MONDAY, PERHAPS ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST
ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH OR
EXCEED 100F BOTH AFTERNOONS. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DEEP MIXING (WHICH COULD
RESULT IN DEWPOINTS PERHAPS MIXING OUT INTO THE L-M 60S ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS), APPARENT TEMPS
SOLIDLY IN THE 105-110F RANGE SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.
SHOULD THE WEAK COLD FRONT (MENTIONED ABOVE) INDEED ENTER THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, IT WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE AS IT
ENTERS A WELL-MIXED AIRMASS (WITH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND CAPE
COMPARED TO WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY). HOWEVER, THERE IS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO, AND FOR
THIS REASON WE WILL ONLY ADVERTISE A LOW (10-30% POP) WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS MERELY DROPPING BACK INTO THE L-M 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AFTER AN INCREASE IN TSRA NEAR A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
YESTERDAY EVENING, IT NOW APPEARS AS IF CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
DATA, WE WILL INCLUDE A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN SHRA AT HSV, FOLLOWED BY A SEPARATE TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH
TERMINALS FROM 9-13Z (FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR/FG). SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS ONCE AGAIN BY 15Z, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A
SCATTERED CU FIELD EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIME, AS WELL. ALTHOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR IN OUR GENERAL REGION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTN HOURS, THE THREAT FOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH A LGT WSW FLOW CONTINUING THRU 6Z FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AUGUST 20TH
AND 21ST.
ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ALSO
INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AUGUST 22ND AND 23RD.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE MODERATE RISK
LOCATIONS AND A 60-80% CHANCE FOR THOSE IN THE HIGH RISK AREAS FOR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 TO 97 DEGREES F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
105 TO 110 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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