384
FXUS64 KHUN 141556
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS POTENTIALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE WILL BE LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
IMPACTS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
TAKING A MID MORNING LOOK AT CURRENT OBS, WE HAVE HAD A FAIRLY
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER NE AL BUT REMAINED LIMITED
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER EARLY
MORNING RIVER FOG HAS BURNED OFF. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40MPH, AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIFE-THREATENING
HEAT AS A 596 DAM HIGH SITS JUST TO OUR EAST. H85 TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 23 DEGREES C WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 94-98 DEGREE F RANGE.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO THE 100-110 DEGREE RANGE WHICH WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT ARE
WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION AND FOR THOSE THAT ARE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TODAY PLEASE BE
SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, USE SUNSCREEN, WEAR LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ME IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S PROVIDING NO REAL RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER (LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF
MID 70S) THANKS TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MIXING. DUE TO
THIS, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW 10%
AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
UP TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA OF WIDESPREAD 110+
HEAT INDICES. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THOSE
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE, BUT CONSIDERATIONS WILL
HAVE TO BE MADE TOWARD THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME IF TRENDS FAVOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES. PLEASE AVOID SPENDING LONG PERIODS OF TIME
OUTDOORS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE
HYDRATION AND COOLING. ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK AND NEVER LEAVE
PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE 5H RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE QUESTION IS HOW AMPLIFIED AND IT'S EASTWARD
INFLUENCE INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHICH
COULD INFLATE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SOME HEAT RELIEF AT TIMES DUE
TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IF THIS VERIFIES. FOR NOW, FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON MONDAY MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S IN VALLEY AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 ATOP THE HIGHER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS). OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL DIP INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN LOW ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS NEXT WEEK, BUT
THIS CERTAINLY COULD WAIVER UPWARD DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/MCS CLUSTER TRACKS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE TN VALLEY
AT TAF ISSUANCE. PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, AS DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONGER
MIXING RESUMES. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, PLUS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
PRODUCING BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 5KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN
A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM AUGUST
21TH THROUGH AUGUST 23RD.
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 TO 97 DEGREES
(F) AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 TO 110 DEGREES (F) DURING
THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RSB
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