658
FXUS64 KHUN 151952
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL
4/4) HEAT IMPACTS FORECAST.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA NEAR AND EAST OF I-65 MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE MID 90S WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING UPPER 90S SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE CLIPPED THE AREA OF NE AL WITH
NO LIGHTNING PRODUCTION THUS FAR. LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE MID 70S OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY LARGER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS (OVER 5-10 DEGREES).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT TO
OUR WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL INFLUENCE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY
WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
103-109 DEGREE RANGE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) IN
WHICH SOME AREA OF NW AL REACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES. BE SURE TO REMAIN HYDRATED
AND SEEK SHADE WHEN OUTDOORS. OTHERWISE, A LOW CHANCE (10% OR
LESS) OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF FAR NE
AL. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS REALIZED, IT WILL PRESENT A LOW CHANCE
OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED EXISTENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A HEIGHTENED RISK AREA FOR HEAT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. OUR CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IS VALID THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE IT WILL GET
EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TUESDAY IN FUTURE UPDATES. CURRENT HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES. MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST AS THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD OF CONCERN, WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. ONE FACTOR TO CONSIDER ON MONDAY
WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. WE ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO A RISK FOR
DOWNBURSTS (AND SUBSEQUENT DAMAGING WINDS) IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. BE SURE TO KEEP
UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN HYDRATED AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGH
THE WEEK, BUT MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THANKS TO THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF
THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST, PLACING THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT, WE MAY BE MORE
UNDER THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY THAT RIDES ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS IN THE DAYS TO COME. OVERALL, HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...HC
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