928
FXUS64 KHUN 160901 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
401 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL
4/4) HEAT IMPACTS FORECAST.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR EXTREME WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THAT. IF IT DOESN'T MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS, THEN MIXING
MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
- A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST ALABAMA, WITH A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FROM THE
QUAD CITIES OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND EASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS SPRAWLED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS,
OR FROM AROUND THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO BORDER TO OFF OF THE SE
COAST. THIS RIDGE WITH MAXIMUM 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 598 DECAMETERS
WAS HELPING TO BRING VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NEAR 4 AM, NIGHT-TIME LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH GENERALLY CALM
WINDS. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY A TAD COOLER AND A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK, THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG
FORMATION. IF FOG DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN COVERAGE
AND CONFINED TO FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING STRONG, ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY IS
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FLUCTUATE IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY. OUR THINKING
IS THAT THEY'LL MIX A BIT LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM VERY HOT HEAT INDEXES (HI). THAT
SAID, DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 WILL SUPPORT HI VALUES OF 103-106,
VALUES NEAR THE MID 70S COULD PRODUCE NEAR 110 HI. WE ARE KEEPING
THE FAITH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE, THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD BE AIDED SLIGHTLY BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT TO OUR NORTH. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
THIS VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THERE IS SOME QUESTION CONCERNING HOW
QUICKLY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
IF THIS FRONT IS SLOWER AND DOESN'T MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
MAY BE FOCUSED MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD LIKELY
KEEP US IN A GENERAL HEAT ADVISORY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH QUICKER AND FOCUSES HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 110 DEGREES COULD BE MET IN SOME AREAS. OVERALL GOOD
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BETTER SHEAR
(25-30 KNOTS) IN MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS,
EASTERN TENNESSEE, AND NE GEORGIA. IF THIS IS THE CASE, AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, A STRONG OR
SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING MOVING
INTO THE AREA (MAINLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IF SEVERE STORMS
ARE REALIZED. TIMING OF ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SPREAD IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IN GUIDANCE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH, LEANING
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION AND ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOW NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
CURRENTLY, NBM IS GOING THE DRIER ROUTE. EITHER WAY, HIGHS SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS
SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY CLIMBING TO AROUND
106 OR 107 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY
359 AM CDT CDT SUN AUG 15 2026
THE DAY-2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS RAISED A SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO
A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF FRANKLIN COUNTY
TN, AND EASTERN JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES IN AL ON MONDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) COVERS AREAS FROM THE QUAD CITIES OF NW
ALABAMA AND POINTS EASTWARD. VERY STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ADDING
TO THE MIX IS A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS
FRONT NEARING THE REGION WILL HELP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT FORM COULD
BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS, AKA DOWNBURST MODE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS NW FLOW CONTINUES AND
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, AS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MORE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN LOWER-48 WILL
CONTROL THE GENERAL WEATHER FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE SE COAST WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT FOG IS UNLIKELY AT
KMSL, OTHER MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD BE IMPACTED BY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER DAYBREAK.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....KTW/RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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