624
FXUS64 KHUN 180823
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- HEAT IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
TO MINOR RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) THROUGH THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING IN A NW TO SE MANNER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GIVEN MINIMAL IMMEDIATE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AIRMASSES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND IT BEING IN THE COOLER OVERNIGHT,
NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS OCCURRING. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT CONVECTION, LIGHT WINDS,
AND ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR. A
COUPLE OF OUR METAR SITES WERE REPORTING PATCHY FOG, SO ADDED IT
TO THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
A STILL STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL CONUS
WAS SHRINKING IN SIZE WHILE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN LOWER-48. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE THE
LOWER 90S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. AS DRIER AIR FURTHER
TO OUR NORTH FILTERS IN, DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 70S SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN PLACED OVER THE SW U.S. INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SE U.S.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, THE TN VALLEY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
90S AND HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A FEW SPOTS COULD
REACH 105 DEGREES, HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEAT PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL BE MONITORING A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES SET TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS
A RESULT, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAINFALL RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACCOMPANIED BY HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104 DEGREES. WHILE NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE
ON THE TABLE AT THIS TIME, WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO
REMAIN HYDRATED AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RELATED
TO A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH HAS NOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVOLVE ACROSS AR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AFTER SUNRISE AS A DRIER AIRMASS IS ADVECTED
SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THUS, WE WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS, WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS THAT WILL
DIURNALLY BACK TO NNW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN SPITE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING, ABUNDANT MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF
BR/FG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page