669
FXUS64 KHUN 190306
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE (~10%) OF STRONGER
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- HEATRISK WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, FROM MODERATE VALUES
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DOWN TO MINOR VALUES
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY AND WAS A NICE CHANGE FROM THE
INCREDIBLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS OF LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THE ONLY LINGERING CLOUDS
THIS EVENING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THE FIRED UP TO THE SW
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGGED SOUTH. A FEW
OF THESE CLOUDS ARND 7KFT AND 25KFT ARE MEANDERING NE TOWARD OUR
AREA, BUT SHOULDN'T INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE IN NORTHERN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN, WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SANS
THE OCCASIONAL PATCH OF FOG HERE/THERE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS OR
SPOTS ALONG AREA WATERWAYS.
WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY, DRY, BUT WITH
THE RETURN OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY PINWHEEL CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW, BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE DISSIPATING
BY/AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE TN RIVER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE EAST TO WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
OF THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE, THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE
IT COULD BE THE MOST INTERESTING, WITH A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED
YET, A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW YET AGAIN
WILL SPARK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DURING THIS TIME, MODEST INSTABILITY AND EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FEATURE DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME IN SEEING SEVERE
STORMS, BUT IF MONDAY WAS ANY INDICATOR, IT'S DEFINITELY AN
OPTION ON THE TABLE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TIMEFRAME FOR
ANY FORECAST SHIFTS/TWEAKS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE OR
THE INCREASING/DECREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT MAY AID IN BETTER
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THIS TIME LAST WEEKEND
WHEN WE SAW HEAT ADVISORY/EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS WEEKEND WON'T EVEN CRACK THE
CENTURY MARK, TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 95F.
RAIN RETURNS BY TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF
LOWER 60S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE AL)!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CLOUD BASES ARND 5KFT AND 25KFT WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD TOMORROW, BUT NO IMPACTS TO EITHER TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED.
FOG IS NOT A CONCERN TONIGHT THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM....12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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