842
FXUS64 KHUN 191643
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 857 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- A VERY LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIR CAN BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPED INTO THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
FORECAST TODAY WILL BE SPLIT EAST VS WEST. IN OUR EASTERN AREAS,
DRIER AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY
LIMITING BOTH DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING BELOW 100. TO OUR WEST, WARMER MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN AND INCREASE BOTH OUR DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE HIGH 90S WITH HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE 105+ HEAT
INDICES HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY.
A SECONDARY THREAT IN OUR WESTERN AREAS WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH MO/IL/KY SUPPORTED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SAME
REGION AND PUSH ESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A LOW CHANCE OF THESE STORMS MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND CLIPPING NW AL. MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY WITH A FEW CAMS
ACTUALLY CLIPPING US WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT THIS
AFTERNOON, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS WE WILL BE
LACKING FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. FAIR TO SAY WE HAVE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN AND IF WE MAY SEE
STORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IF WE
GET CLIPPED BY ANYTHING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT APPROACH INTO THE NIGHT WILL HAVE A MUCH LOWER SEVERE RISK AS
THEY WILL BE WEAKENING ON APPROACH. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
AS PATTERNS LIKE THIS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HEAVIER CLOUD COVER MAY BE PRESENT THURSDAY
MORNING NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED IN
THE NEAR TERM DIES THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY
MUGGIER START TO THE DAY, THURSDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY. SPC HAS AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED NW AL IN A MARGINAL FOR A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH AFTERNOON STORMS. CAMS ARE IN OKAY
AGREEMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND PUSHING EAST
THROUGH NW AL. WHILE WE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR AND FORCING
THAN TODAY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY THREAT. THE
THREAT JUST MAY BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD WITH EVERY STORM
POSING A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TIMING WISE THE
THREAT LOOKS TO FOLLOW OUR TYPICALLY SUMMER STORMS, POPPING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND DYING OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PLEASE CHECK
BACK FOR UPDATES.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THE CONUS WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGING WEST/TROUGHING EAST SETUP. THIS WILL PUT US
SOLIDLY IN NW FLOW AND PROMOTE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT RISK DROPPING TO A LEVEL 1/4.
THIS WILL BE A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN AFTER THE HEAT THE FIRST HALF
OF AUGUST BROUGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THIS TIME LAST WEEKEND
WHEN WE SAW HEAT ADVISORY/EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS WEEKEND WON'T EVEN CRACK THE
CENTURY MARK, TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 95F.
RAIN RETURNS BY TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF
LOWER 60S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE AL)!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWERS AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING YET CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THEM AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...RAD
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