698
FXUS64 KHUN 200541
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY BUT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH/UPPER WAVE NEARS THE AREA. THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY
TONIGHT BUT WE WILL SEE A RISE IN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
NORTH OF THE TN RIVER TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY TO
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH DCAPE VALUES 1000+ WHICH ARE TYPICALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL, BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY GIVEN A
HIGHER MELTING LEVEL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE
BUT DO WANT TO STRESS THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT WITHOUT
PROPER HYDRATION AND ADEQUATE COOLING.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER AND MID
MS RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A DRIER PATTERN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES BELOW 105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AFTER FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE LONG TERM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO REACH THE 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100 DEGREES, WHICH WILL KEEP US WITHOUT ANY
HEAT PRODUCTS ON THE TABLE. ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY
CLIP THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
NOW, HAVE KEPT POPS ALIGNED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THIS FRONT. THEREFORE, LOW CHANCES (20%
OR LESS) OF RAIN EXISTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
INTERESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN FOR FORECAST
UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS NOTED FOR THE
START OF THE TAF, WITH LIGHT SE WINDS. HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WAS MOVING A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF DUE EAST ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KY AND NW TN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEARING 100%, WE CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG FORMATION. ITS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HAMPERED THE LIGHT SE FLOW.
LATER IN THE TAF, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH SHORT-TERM MVFR
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB
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