060
FXUS64 KHUN 211516
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- VERY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS AN MCS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- GREATER RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT AIDED IN SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE FRONT THAT ALSO HELPED WITH
SHOWER AND STORM FORMATION IS SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM OUR
AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON, IT'S SLATED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS COINCIDES WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY AND THIS EVENING (DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S).
OVERALL, THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH TODAY; HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND PERHAPS UP
INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (10-20%). NO
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TONIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, IT WON'T BE AS WARM AS IN RECENT DAYS, BUT
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION, CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MAY PAVE THE WAY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH, ANY FOG THAT FORMS
ISN'T EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DENSE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FARTHER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEKEND, PUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD. IN ADDITION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
TYPE FEATURE TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA. THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE CONSENSUS JUST YET, BUT
WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON THESE TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN
THIS, ANTICIPATING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON,
ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL
KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY, WITH
THE BIG QUESTION BEGIN DETAILS OF MCS TIMING AND INTENSITY. IT'S FAR
TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THIS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE, SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NBM IN THIS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS OF EVENING TSRA CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING, ANOTHER SMALL BUT WEAKENING
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD (SAFELY TO THE S/W OF
BOTH HSV AND MSL) EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WITH ONLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CELLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
(AND FRONTAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL AL),
WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THUS, VFR CONDS WILL
EXIST, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SCT-BKN STRATOCU FIELD BY 15Z
(FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING AROUND 0Z). SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
360-020 AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...70
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