407
FXUS64 KHUN 221134
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF PATCHY, DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS (ORIGINATING FROM
CONVECTION YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST) WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE TRANSLUCENT NATURE OF THE CLOUDS,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS CALM
WINDS WILL EXIST WITHIN A WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTH. THUS, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE M-U 60S. ALTHOUGH
PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS SPORADICALLY DEVELOPED IN SOME OF
OUR NORMALLY FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS, THIS HAS NOT YET BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD FOR THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY.
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IL EARLY
THIS MORNING (IN ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-MS VALLEY), WITH ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION IN PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL NE SOUTHWARD INTO OK. AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS (WHERE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER) AND FROM THE OZARKS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MS (WHERE THE FRONT MAY INTERCEPT A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING, FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MCS).
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PARTS OF KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON (IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT), 0Z CAMS SUGGEST A LOWER SPATIAL COVERAGE IN THIS
REGION (PERHAPS DUE TO WEAKER LIFT AND FAIRLY DRY PROFILES WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.2-1.4" RANGE). THUS, IT APPEARS AS IF OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATED TO EASTWARD- PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW FROM A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
MS (AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 2Z, AT WHICH POINT CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING). WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED
TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN (DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES), A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP TO 40-50 MPH) COULD OCCUR WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CELLS. OTHERWISE, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE L-M 90S FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NW FLOW AT 5H
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND CONVERGENCE ZONE LOCATED ACROSS IA THROUGH MO AND AR. THIS
WILL BE THE GENESIS REGION OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED AS THEY
REACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WHEN WE HAVE LOW CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE EXTREME HEAT
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER IN EXCHANGE FOR THAT, WE WILL BE STUCK IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WE WILL START OFF WITH THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW UP IN QUEBEC
AND THE FAR NE U.S WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE, A SMALLER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA WILL TRY TO BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. AS THAT SMALLER LOW
SLIDES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BE
DAMPENED ENOUGH FOR IT TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
WILL BE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, KEEPING
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN MCS TO DROP THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR SPECIFIC
HAZARDS AND TIMING, BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, WITH MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR/FG POSSIBLE
FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH A DRIER
PROFILE IN PLACE TODAY, WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A
FEW CU BENEATH A SCT LAYER OF AC. LGT NW FLOW (~5 KTS) WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THRU THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW-
TOPPED SHRA MAY EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT REGION-WIDE THIS EVENING,
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT MSL (DUE TO A MORE
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MS). REGARDLESS, PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
EITHER TAF ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD
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