593
FXUS64 KHUN 222208
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
508 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 909 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AL
THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE MOST
INTENSE CELLS.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE HIGH 80S TO
LOW 90S. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. CURRENTLY, A COMPLEX OF STORMS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING SE THROUGH THE OZARKS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
DROP SE, STORMS TOO WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SE. STILL THINKING STORMS
WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 6-8 PM AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS CAMS STRUGGLE
TO RESOLVE THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WHILE COVERAGE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD, THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT STORMS WILL CLIP NW AL, LARGELY STAYING WEST OF
I-65. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AS STORMS MOVE IN, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS PUSH SOUTH. PLEASE CHECK BACK
FOR UPDATES. ANY STORMS AND RAIN PRESENT LOOK TO END AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE
FIRST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS AND LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 90
DEGREES WITH LOWS STAYING BELOW 70. THE SECOND FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN A RIDGING WEST / TROUGHING EAST REGIME. THIS WILL KEEP US IN NW
FLOW AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THE FIRST OF THESE LOOKS TO BE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
WHILE IT'S A LITTLE TOO SOON TO PULL OUT SPECIFIC DETAILS, REALLY
ANY PASSING FEATURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENERAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND TIMING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE EXTREME HEAT
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER IN EXCHANGE FOR THAT, WE WILL BE STUCK IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WE WILL START OFF WITH THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW UP IN QUEBEC
AND THE FAR NE U.S WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE, A SMALLER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA WILL TRY TO BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. AS THAT SMALLER LOW
SLIDES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BE
DAMPENED ENOUGH FOR IT TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
US IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
WILL BE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, KEEPING
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN MCS TO DROP THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR SPECIFIC
HAZARDS AND TIMING, BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
AL INCLUDING KMSL. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. ONCE THESE TSRA MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
06Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17
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