925
FXUS64 KHUN 230854
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TIMING AND IMPACT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 25-35 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
(OVER OT) PHASES WITH A SMALLER DISTURBANCE TO ITS SOUTH TO FORM A
PARTIALLY CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MB
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OT) WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THIS
OCCURS, WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXPECTED TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD
AS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
(MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS) WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL CWFA EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT
AXIS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT) SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, AND FOR THIS REASON WE WILL
RETAIN A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR OUR REGION. AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 65-70F RANGE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (85-90F), WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS
DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE U50S-L60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE A SUNNY AND LESS HUMID DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL BRING A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PRONOUNCED LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL LIE FROM MO THROUGH NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHERN MS INTO
WESTERN AL DURING THIS TIME, KEEPING OUR ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WOULD BE
HIGHER BASED/ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
(30-50%) ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY, THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FLATTENS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FLATTENS AS WELL AND PUSHES
FARTHER EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX. A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND OHIO VALLEY.
OVERALL, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE
ABOVE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST. EXPECTING LOWER CHANCES COME
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN STORMS CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE GREATER THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE. AMPLE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION
TO BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS, 0-3KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG
C/KM, ALONG WITH DCAPE AROUND OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, WILL WARRANT US
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
RECENTLY, THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL (BUT FREEZING LEVELS MAY BE TOO
HIGH). AS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS, THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL, SINCE MOST PWATS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.7-2.0
INCHES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES WHEN COMPARED TO BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH
MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
STAY WEATHER AWARE ESPECIALLY IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND CHECK BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD THRU THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHRA MAY SPORADICALLY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT, CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE, SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A
BROKEN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL AS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THRU SUNRISE,
PROVIDING VFR CIGS ~10 KFT. HOWEVER, THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD
RAPIDLY DISPERSE AFTER 12Z, WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR-WEATHER CU AND
FEW CI EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CLOUDS IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING, PERHAPS
BECOMING BROKEN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 340-020 AT 5-10 KTS TODAY, BUT SHOULD VEER TO NE AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...70/DD
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