769
FXUS64 KHUN 240854
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
354 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 736 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AS WE WILL REMAIN
LOCATED BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH (CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM) AND AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OT/QC). IN THE LOW-
LEVELS, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM OT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY, MAINTAINING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AND A NOTABLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF AUGUST. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING VORT MAX
(CURRENTLY TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MO) HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO DENSE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS (AND A FEW PATCHES OF
VIRGA) EARLY THIS MORNING, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISPERSE RATHER
QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING AS THE DECAYING DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES
FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THUS, AFTER EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE L-M 60S (COOLEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AL),
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
U80S-L90S. WITH CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS (ORIGINATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS) EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST (IN THE VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
GRADIENT POSITIONED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST), WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHER THETA-E,
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEING SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS FORECAST
MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY ON TUESDAY, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO EDGE FURTHER EAST INTO AL AND MIDDLE TN. THIS BRINGS A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE WAVE, MAGNITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED LLJ, AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
INFLUX OF THETA-E AND CONVERGENCE. THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS
THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION, POSSIBLY IN THE FORMER OF MCS CLUSTERS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN MO AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THESE
DROP INTO WESTERN KY, MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TN AND INTO
NORTH AL BY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM
HAS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS EVENT, BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH 20-25KT OF 6KM BULK SHEAR.
AS OF NOW, NBM HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREA,
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE QUESTIONABLE IF THE MORNING MCS CLUSTERS
ARRIVE AS THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHOWN TO BE RIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TO START THE LONG TERM, WITH SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ALONG THE
FLOW ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND GEORGIA THROUGH MIDWEEK;
BUT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A REINFORCING FRONT THAT SWINGS
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES THEN DECREASE
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR IS FILTERED INTO
THE REGION.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES AND LAPSE RATES HAVE DECREASED
SINCE YESTERDAY. SO, CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER STORMS (DOWNBURSTS) HAS
ALSO DECREASED; HOWEVER, THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
REGARDLESS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
REPEATEDLY, MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. ULTIMATELY,
KEEP ANY EYE ON FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK AND TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS! FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOWER WITH CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRROFORM CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AL EARLY THIS MORNING, AS A
WEAKENING UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF VIRGA (OR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO OF LGT RA) MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH 12-14Z, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS AS THE HIGH-LVL CEILINGS
SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG (IN SPITE OF A LGT NE-
CALM WIND). THE DENSE CLOUD COVER ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DISPERSE
AROUND 15Z, LEAVING ONLY A SCT COVERAGE OF CI (AND FEW CU DURING
THE AFTN). SFC WINDS WILL DIURNALLY BACK TO NNW AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING, BEFORE A LGT ENE FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...70/DD
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