454
FXUS64 KHUN 250115
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
815 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 840 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
BE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST INLAND OF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE THROUGH SOUTHERN GA, AL AND MS. DEW POINTS HAVE DIPPED INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE %N TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN
NORTH AL. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PLEASANT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
TEH LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST WITH CALM
OR LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAY IS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, AND
PERHAPS MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND THE
HIGHER PLATEAU LOCATIONS. A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY, BUT NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION
THIS FAR EAST GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS.
THAT CHANGES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE OR MCV
INDUCED WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM KS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE
MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY. THETA-E ADVECTION INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (PROBABLY ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS WEST OF I-65. THEN AS THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS RECEIVING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, SO A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED, SO CURRENT NBM HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S MAY BE SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. WE WILL MONITOR FUTURE MODEL
TRENDS ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WELL AS THIS SHORTWAVE DROPS DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AN ACTUAL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS UNLIKELY NOW UNTIL
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, MAINTAINING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-
WIDE BY SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR NOW, HOWEVER, HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL ENCOURAGED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS. BE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK SHADE IF OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION, VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS 00Z
FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 3 KNOTS. THESE WILL INCREASE A BIT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. /19/
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...19
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