408
FXUS64 KHUN 251453
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
953 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A VERY WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT HAS TRIGGERED SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE FORCING FROM THE VORT MAX. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH OUR LOWER DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR LINGERING FOR ONE MORE DAY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING BELOW 70 DEGREES, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
TRIPLE DIGITS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN COME SUNRISE, SEE MORE IN
THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH NEARLY THE
WHOLE PERIOD. CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS
IN THIS PATTERN WHICH GIVES ME VERY LITTLE FAITH IN THEIR CURRENT
OUTPUT. LIKEWISE, CAMS CURRENT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT
PASSING, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS ROUNDS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE FIRST OF
THESE LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN NW AL AROUND SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE IN NW AL HOWEVER MORNING
CONVECTION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOW THE AFTERNOON UNFOLDS. IF
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL OBTAIN ENOUGH
CAPE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
IT IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR IF WE WILL SEE A TRUE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORWARD WITH EACH CAM
SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
MCS/AREAS OF STORMS. AS THE APPROACHING FRONT DRAWS NEAR BOTH OUR
DEW POINTS AND PWATS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OUR
PROLONGED ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. WE
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD WE WILL BE LACKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR, WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR SEVERE THREAT. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LACK THE ABILITY TO GET/STAY ORGANIZED AND
MAKE FOR A RATHER MESSY RADAR APPEARANCE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, MAINTAINING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-
WIDE BY SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR NOW, HOWEVER, HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL ENCOURAGED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS. BE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK SHADE IF OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYER OF AS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CIGS ARND
15 KFT THIS MORNING, AS A WEAKENING UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHRA MAY
ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT TIMES, WITH CLOUD BASES HIGH AND MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE INTO VIRGA, WE WILL
NOT MENTION ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAFS ATTM. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION,
SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM N-TO-S BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTN,
WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING PATCHES OF AC/CI EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LGT ENE SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRBL THIS AFTN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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