595
FXUS64 KHUN 260621
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
121 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN THE REGION. DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN TN, WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER NORTH AL. LATER TONIGHT, MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
KY AND TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AN EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THESE CLIPPING FAR NORTHWEST AL, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT, THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND 6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-30KT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS. LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 TONIGHT, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY (UPPER 80S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SAND
AND LOOKOUT MTNS).
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL BRING MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. THESE LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, PRODUCING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
WILL DICTATE THIS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN VALLEYS AND MIDDLE 80S ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ALLOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO TAKE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUED
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN THE
EASTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO STALL IT BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING IT SLIGHTLY
BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
BE SURE TO SEEK SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS
AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, WE DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE/DENSITY OF BOTH AS/CS CLOUDS BY SUNRISE, WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOWER STRATOCU LAYER EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CIGS ARND FL040 BY
16Z. OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO
OUR NORTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MCS, WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD ULTIMATELY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA AND MVFR VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
MSL/17-21Z AND HSV/19-23Z, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN
FURTHER UPDATES. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF AWWS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A LGT SSW WIND THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page