441
FXUS64 KHUN 261146
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 409 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE (CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES) THIS
MORNING, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY-CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE M60S/NE TO U60S/SW. HOWEVER, A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT (REPRESENTING THE INTERFACE OF
THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY) IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
MAY SERVE AS AN INITIATION MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
PRIOR TO 12Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. AT THIS POINT, WE
WILL RETAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
STRENGTHENING VEERING PROFILES IN THE SURFACE-8 KFT LAYER WILL
FOSTER AN INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DENSE ALTOSTRATUS
CLOUDS (PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST). MORNING LOWS APPEAR ON
TRACK TO REACH THE 65-70F RANGE.
LATER THIS MORNING, CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONFLUENCE
AXIS (FROM EAST-CENTRAL MO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MS)
AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BOTH BE AIDED BY DIURNAL WARMING AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX (WHICH IS PREDICTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN AL BY 0Z IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OF
10-20 KNOTS). WITH AN ENHANCEMENT IN MID-LEVEL LIFT AND FLOW
PROVIDED BY THIS DISTURBANCE, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO 1-2 MCSS MAY
OCCUR WITH TIME, AND IT APPEARS AS IF THE EASTERNMOST CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS (50-60 MPH) MAY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST (WHERE MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG
PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION), THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO REACH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (AS IT IS DECAYING WITHIN A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AIRMASS) LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN RAIN-COOLED AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
REACH THE U80S-L90S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL BRING MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. THESE LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, PRODUCING REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
WILL DICTATE THIS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN VALLEYS AND MIDDLE 80S ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ALLOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO TAKE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUED
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN THE
EASTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO STALL IT BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING IT SLIGHTLY
BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
BE SURE TO SEEK SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR CONDS CURRENTLY EXIST AT BOTH AIRPORTS. HOWEVER,
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
MCS, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN (BUT SHOULD
ULTIMATELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST). TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AND MVFR VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS HAVE
BEEN CONTINUED FOR MSL/17-21Z AND HSV/19-23Z, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, WARRANTING
ISSUANCE OF AWWS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS,
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LGT SSW WIND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD (POTENTIALLY DENSE) FOG PRIOR TO
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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