303
FXUS64 KHUN 261604
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1104 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
PLEASANT START TO THE MORNING, AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AS OF 11 AM WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THOUGH AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM ON RADAR, THE MCS IS EXITING THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CORES HAVE STRENGTHENED AN HOUR OR SO
AGO BUT HAVE DECREASED IN THE LAST FEW SCANS, HOWEVER THE STORM
ITSELF HAS SPED UP. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MCS
GOING, COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK MID- LEVEL VORT
MAX THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEFORE 00Z FROM THE NW. OUR SHEAR
SEEMS TO REMAIN WEAK BUT THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT.
WITH THIS, OUR MAIN THREATS ARE DOING TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
(50-60 MPH) AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH CURRENT TRENDS, SPC EXPANDED THE D1 MARGINAL OUTLOOK (LEVEL
1/5) EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH JUST A SLIVER OF OUR FAR EASTERN SECTION LEFT
OUT. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN IN NW
AL TODAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DECAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS STILL DON'T HAVE A
GREAT HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY OR TIMING, HOWEVER WITH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS, WILL TREND BACK THE PREVIOUS TIMING BY 2 HOURS, SO
MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 2-8PM. OUTFLOW COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE, SO STAY WEATHER AWARE AS WE HEAD
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
TOMORROW, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO
STALL OUT MORESO IN CENTRAL AL AND A SFC HIGH IN THE OH VALLEY
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IF THE FRONT DOESN'T STALL AS FAR SOUTH AS
FORECASTED, POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S (HIGHER PLATEAU AREAS)
TO LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ALLOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO TAKE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUED
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN THE
EASTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO STALL IT BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING IT SLIGHTLY
BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
BE SURE TO SEEK SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR CONDS CURRENTLY EXIST AT BOTH AIRPORTS. HOWEVER,
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
MCS, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN (BUT SHOULD
ULTIMATELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST). TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AND MVFR VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS HAVE
BEEN CONTINUED FOR MSL/17-21Z AND HSV/19-23Z, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, WARRANTING
ISSUANCE OF AWWS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS,
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LGT SSW WIND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD (POTENTIALLY DENSE) FOG PRIOR TO
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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