826
FXUS64 KHUN 261853
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
153 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE MCS HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FIRED OFF OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS
CLOSE TO THE AL/MS LINE. THESE STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS
TIME. MOST RECENT WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE STORM NEAR FLORENCE
WAS 50 MPH AND PRETTY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE TWO COMPLEXES JUST
MERGED NEAR FLORENCE AND MOVING EASTWARD ~20 MPH. WITH THE SLOW
PACE AND SOME STORMS BEGINNING TO TRAIN, THERE IS STARTING TO BE
A CONCERN FOR FLOODING AS WELL. THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY AS YOU
MOVE EASTWARD, HOWEVER STILL AWAITING THE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH WHICH COULD REIGNITE THE INTENSITY OF SOME STORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING, THE NEXT ITEM OF
CONCERN WILL BE FOG. DENSITY WILL DEPEND ON WHO HAS RECEIVED
RAINFALL AND HOW MUCH. SO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
TOMORROW, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO
STALL OUT MORESO IN CENTRAL AL AND A SFC HIGH IN THE OH VALLEY
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IF THE FRONT DOESN'T STALL AS FAR SOUTH AS
FORECASTED, POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S (HIGHER PLATEAU AREAS)
TO LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ALLOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO TAKE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUED
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN THE
EASTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO STALL IT BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING IT SLIGHTLY
BACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
BE SURE TO SEEK SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
TSRA IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF KMSL AND IT WILL STILL BE AN HOUR OR
TWO UNTIL KHSV SEES ANY CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN REDUCE VIS
TO TEMPORARILY TO MVFR. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE RAIN
OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, KEPT IN MVFR VIS FOR FOG OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BRIEFLY GET AS LOW AS IFR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...JMS
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