401
FXUS64 KHUN 270826
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORECAST IN
PORTIONS OF FAR NE AL AND FAR NW AL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING; NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO THIN EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY, MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN
THESE AREAS NORTH OF THE RIVER. AT THIS TIME, OBSERVATIONAL AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE THE FOG HAS BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK -- ESPECIALLY IN THE SKY CLEARS BY 5-6 AM. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD THIS OCCUR.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLOUD
COVER HANGING ON DUE TO PASSING CIRRUS. REGARDLESS, THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE HEATING TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE, A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20-40%) IS AGAIN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON (WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST ALABAMA). LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
WITH MOSTLY DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
COMFORTABLY INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES UP
TO 100 DEGREES. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO, LOW CHANCES (20% OR
LESS) WILL EXIST IN NE AL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY IT INTO FAR NW AL BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THEY
APPROACH THE TENNESSEE RIVER. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH
LACK OF SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES. OUTSIDE OF
THURSDAY, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL BRING A RELATIVELY DRY BUT HOT AIRMASS TO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW 90S WHILE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND AFTERNOON MIXING HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR OR BELOW
THE 100 DEGREE MARK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BECOMES BETTER
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK, H85 TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE 20-25C RANGE,
TRANSLATING TO SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE GOOD NEWS THAT
MAY SUPPRESS A LARGER HEAT WAVE THREAT WILL BE THAT THE DEWPOINT
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT EVENTS.
EVEN STILL, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE 100-107 DEGREE
RANGE NEXT WEEK AND ANY TRENDS THAT FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WOULD WORK TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT.
SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET, SO REMEMBER TO PRACTICE AND PLAN FOR
DANGEROUS TEMPS AND VERY HOT OUTDOOR WORKING CONDITIONS. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED BELOW 20% THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT
BOTH TERMINALS AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS BETWEEN 08-12Z. ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY REDEVELOP
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 3RD. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP
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