292
FXUS64 KHUN 291435
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 936 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL TEND TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERWARD, AND ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY PROFILE, INDICATIVE OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. THUS, DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER LET
ALONE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURE TO
REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT (AND A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO VIEW THE FULL
STURGEON MOON). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE HEAT DOME WILL MOVE EAST WITH IT. AS A
RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH AT LEAST MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH 70S
DEWPOINTS PUSHING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE BOTH DAYS. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE COVERAGE OF HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES IS STILL EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WE HAVE NO
CURRENT PLANS TO ISSUE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
IF TEMPERATURES TREND A LITTLE HIGHER (ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY) THAT
COULD CHANGE. THUS, BE SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND ALWAYS
FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES! SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION, BUT A VERY LOW
CHANCE (10-15%) OF A ROGUE STORM WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM, RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
TN VALLEY. THIS WILL BE PAIRED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AT THE SURFACE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW AND SET TEMPS ON A WARMING TREND. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM
FROM THE LOW 90S BACK TO THE HIGH 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INDUCE WEAK ESE FLOW WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN DEW POINTS TO THE 70S. WHILE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AND EYE ON TRENDS, MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S WHICH WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F). UNDER ESE FLOW, DEW POINTS LOOK HIGHEST
IN NE AL. AS SUCH, LOW CHANCES (20% OR LESS) FOR TERRAIN ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. WITHOUT ANY WIDESPREAD
FORCING FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN, HEAT WILL BE OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES AND CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 5TH AND 6TH. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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