461
FXUS64 KHUN 062249
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING DUE
TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK, AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RISING UP TO
105-109 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- A CONDITIONAL, LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS
POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS.
- A BREAK IN HEAT IMPACTS THIS WEEK AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER, DRIER
AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON WITH 18Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOST OF THE AREA DEVOID OF CU, WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION JUST
FORMING TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THINK
THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE WHERE A
BULK OF TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED AND FOR THIS
REASON, HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. THIS TREND HAS ALSO BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST CAMS. HAVING SAID THAT, THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
IF SOMETHING CAN GET GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1400 J/KG. THUS WHILE COVERAGE WON'T BE ALL THAT HIGH, WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVERY STORM THAT DEVELOPS CLOSELY. AFTER
CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING, MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND A SLIGHTLY MORE DRIER AIR
MASS MOVING IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A SLIGHTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KNOCK
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES (UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) AND
LOWER NWS HEAT RISK VALUES TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4). THUS, HEAT
PRODUCTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
BE SURE TO CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS
IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER THAN A ROGUE STORM
OR TWO OVER THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA, A VAST MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON LABOR DAY, WITH POPS AROUND 10-20% --
AND LOWERING TO 5-10% ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER FEATURE TO
WATCH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, A WEAK RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS IN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AND BRING
SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN TURN, WEAK CAD WILL ADVECT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY BY EARLY TO MID WEEK AND ALLOW LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS (30% OR LESS) EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SFC HIGH OFFICIALLY SETS UP. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH CONTINUED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. BEYOND THE LONG TERM, THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS US IN AN AREA FOR LIKELY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THEREFORE, RELIEF
FROM THIS HEAT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING,
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...GH
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