780
FXUS64 KHUN 071142
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 320 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO 100 CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WAS NOW
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILED OVER AND AROUND THE REGION WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. A LIGHT NE WIND AND A
GREATER DRYBULB/DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE SHOULD KEEP PREDAWN FOG
FORMATION MINIMIZED.
A FADING SHOWER COMPLEX HEADING TO THE SE ACROSS MISSOURI SHOULD
BRING A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK INTO THE
MORNING. WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY
SHOULD A TAD "COOLER." RATHER THAN UPPER 90S TO 101 HIGHS,THEY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
LOW/MID 90S WEST. LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S,
WILL REDUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID 90S TO 100, THUS NOT
HOT ENOUGH FOR AN OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY. THAT SAID, THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND
ALERT TO DANGERS POSED BY VERY WARM AND HOT CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS DAYTIME HEATING COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NE ALABAMA AND THE ADJACENT CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS OUT BRINGING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US. THIS RESULTS
IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AS WELL AS
WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THIS WEEK, IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE WARM AND NWS HEAT RISK IS
FORECAST TO BE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4). BE SURE TO CONTINUE PRACTICING
HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE MAIN FEATURE OF DISCUSSION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM SHIFTING EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
INCREASED CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN
STORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME FRIDAY, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THE MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES,
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES. WHILE
THIS IS BELOW LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO
REMAIN HYDRATED AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY WHILE OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS EARLY
SHOULD BECOME NE 5-10KT, THEN BECOME EASTERLY IN THE LATE MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NE AL
THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE MAIN TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB
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