802
FXUS64 KHUN 080049
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
749 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO 100 CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- VERY LOW (10-20%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA
AND THE ADJACENT CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
IT'S GOING TO BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT, WITH SOME ELEVATED AREAS SEEING LOWS NEAR THE UPPER
60S. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10-15%) FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS EVENING EAST OF I-65 WITH
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THERE IS A DRY AIRMASS AT THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL HELP TO
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AS DRY AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO
DEVELOPING CLOUDS. ANY STORMS THAT DO POP UP WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED, BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME DOWNBURSTS
DURING THE LATE EVENING (AROUND 5-8 PM) WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1100-1200 J/KG.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM, AND DRY
(RAIN-FREE) CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REMAINS JUST A TOUCH ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL, BUT STILL PEAK IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW TO MID 90S (WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE, MEANING CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES VERY LOW (5-10%) EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE MAIN FEATURE OF DISCUSSION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM SHIFTING EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
INCREASED CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN
STORM ACTIVITY SOMETIME FRIDAY, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THE MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES,
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES. WHILE
THIS IS BELOW LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO
REMAIN HYDRATED AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY WHILE OUTDOORS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION (FROM E-TO-W) THIS EVENING, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. ALTHOUGH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR INVOF A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AT THE INTERFACE OF THE HIGH, THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE TO PRECLUDE
MENTIONING PRECIPITATION IN TAFMSL. OTHERWISE, A LOWER DECK OF
BROKEN STRATOCU WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY, PROVIDING VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT THAT SHOULD PERSIST THRU
EARLY-MID AFTN TUE BEFORE DISPERSING. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS BEGINNING ARND 14Z, BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EE
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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