998
FXUS64 KHUN 091300
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
800 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 800 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- AS A MOIST AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE REGION, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AND REMAIN IN THE
20-50% CHANCE RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, PROMOTING ANOTHER WARM/HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S (WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES), THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS
WILL CREATE MODERATE (LEVEL 2/3) HEAT IMPACTS FOR THOSE OUTDOORS
AND COMMON-SENSE, HEAT SAFETY RULES SHOULD BE OBSERVED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE THE
OHIO RIVER (CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT), WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGE LARGELY SQUASHING CONVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON,
HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 10% OR LESS (AS A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING). ANY CLOUD COVER THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, RESULTING IN CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
WOULD ANTICIPATE THURSDAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY AND PRIMARILY
DEVOID OF ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER, HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER, PEAKING IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY (WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN). THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% CHANCE). A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT. AMPLE HEATING DURING THE MORNING WILL
LIKELY WARM HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, PERHAPS BECOMING A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS (FEATURING PWAT VALUES IN THE 2-2.2" RANGE AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S-L70S, PERHAPS RISING INTO THE M70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY). ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AT ANY POINT (DAY OR NIGHT), STORM COVERAGE DURING ANY
SINGLE SPECIFIC PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO INDICATIONS THAT
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH TIME. WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
BE UNORGANIZED AND INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. REGARDLESS, SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
CAPE WILL EXIST FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HIGH PWAT VALUES/SLOW
CELL MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY PREDICTED TO BE IN THE L-M 90S (BUT
MAY BE LOWER ON DAYS WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION), WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S. HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN
IN THE MINOR-MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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