946
FXUS64 KHUN 101623
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 816 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 753 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE TN VALLEY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN WEST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
INTO GA AND AL. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 60S AS A RESULT
THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, THE LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 100 FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN AND FAR NORTHEAST AL. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARDS THROUGH
SOUTHERN MS AND AL WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNAKING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AS WELL, WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 753 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE DISTURBANCE OVER MS AND SOUTHWEST AL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY, SPREADING MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY, ALONG WITH HIGHER PW VALUES AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THEN, A TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY,
ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO HIGH (70-90%). DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW, SO SLOWER MOVING
STORMS AND HIGH PW VALUES WILL LEND TO A RISK HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKED BY WPC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED BY THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, WITH MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE
HIGH DEW POINT VALUES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN AGAIN
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
WILL INDUCE WEAK SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND KEEP HUMID SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE EACH DAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
NEAR AND ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY. WHILE NOT APPROACHING ANY
RECORDS, THESE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH,
PRESENTING MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN MID SEPTEMBER. PLEASE MAKE SURE TO
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT AND SUN SAFETY DURING OUR
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DUE TO THE HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR MID SEPTEMBER, WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY SCATTERED. WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC FORCING
MECHANISM IT WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES OR LOCATIONS
THAT MAY HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
REGARDING OUR LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24
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