071
FXUS64 KHUN 111526
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1026 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, INCREASING TO
MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES SATURDAY. A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RISK OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS BETWEEN TWO FEATURES OF NOTE THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
MID-SOUTH WITH CONVECTION ONGOING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR SOUTHWEST AL, AND IS
SPARKING STORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE MORE PROMINENT TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD
OUR AREA PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS OF 2.13 INCHES PER THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THE WPC
PLACING OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH MUCAPE EXPECTED TO BE ~1000 J/KG AND SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
FREEZING LEVEL, LIGHTNING WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THUS WE EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, CURRENT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90-95
DEGREE RANGE. THESE VALUES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH IF IMPACT FROM
PRECIPITATION OR CLOUDS OCCURS EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN THREAT ON
SATURDAY WILL PIVOT AWAY FROM GUSTY WINDS AND A LOW SEVERE THREAT
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO PWATS AROUND 2", SLOW STORM MOTIONS, AND THE MEAN
FLOW BEING MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL THIS
WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF,
MEANING THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO POPS SHOULD THIS FEATURE
SETUP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED. STILL,
THOSE WITH OUTDOORS PLANS SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING DAY.
STORMS WILL WANE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS WON'T MODIFY ALL THAT MUCH AND
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ANOTHER WARM/HUMID DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 96-103 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON, CREATING MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) HEAT IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
AS WE START THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 98-104F.
THIS IS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REGARDLESS NWS HEATRISK
REMAINS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4 (MODERATE) THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEGINNING AT
18Z, PROB30 GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
THAT WILL PERSIST INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. DURING PERIODS OF RAINFALL, LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, LOWERED CEILINGS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING LIFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS- WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED AS A SCT GROUP FOR NOW DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HB/DD
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...HC
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