965
FXUS64 KHUN 120535
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST
TWO HOURS. CURRENTLY THE ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE IS A BAND OF
WEAKENING STORMS DRAPED OVER TN AND MS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND
WILL BOTH WEAKEN AND ERODE TO THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT, KEEPING US
MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND ONLY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER
SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WE REMAIN INCREDIBILITY MOIST
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND PWATS FOR MID SEPTEMBER. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL AID THE WEAK FORCING AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY. CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING WILL LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR EITHER, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST. RATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT.
RAIN LOOKS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND PUSH SE COME SUNSET WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BUILD OVER
THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE THE RECENT RAIN, OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID 70S, HEAT
INDICES WILL QUICKLY SURGE ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS HEAT WILL
STILL BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. MAKE
SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT AND SUN SAFETY!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN US. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
KEEPING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 97-104 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HEAT
SAFETY AND IF POSSIBLE LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ONE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FORECAST IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS MORE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE, POPS HAVE DECREASED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE, COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AREAS OF -SHRA CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH 08Z. LOW CIGS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PACKAGE AS NUMEROUS SITES ARE
ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE IFR-MVFR RANGE, INCLUDING KHSV.
CONTINUED LOWERING IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING HOURS WITH A TEMPO
INCLUDED FOR KHSV AND KMSL FOR LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z THIS
MORNING. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPACTFUL WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MIN. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE GRADUAL AND START AFTER
15Z ROUGHLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AROUND 18Z. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS SO HAVE
KEPT A VCSH IN PLACE FOR NOW. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THE PM
HOURS SHOULD WRAP UP SHORTLY AFTER 13/00Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KG
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