596
FXUS64 KHUN 122245
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
- NWS HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MAX TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP INTO THE
MID 90S AREAWIDE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENED AFTER MOVING ACROSS
THE QUAD CITIES IN THE LATE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP
AGAIN AS IT NEARED THE I65 CORRIDOR, NOW AS A LINE OF STORMS
HEADING A BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST BETWEEN DECATUR AND HUNTSVILLE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS RECENTLY PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE OVER PORTIONS
OF MORGAN COUNTY. OTHER WEAKER SHOWERS OVER GILES COUNTY WERE
NEARING LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS GENERALLY SCATTERED
OUT FROM DAYTIME HEATING, AREA TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING. NIGHT-TIME LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH AND WHERE
WETTING RAIN OCCURS (1/10" OR MORE), FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
PROBABLE. THE NEWER MODELS AND MOS OUTPUT CONTINUED TO HINT AT A
FOG CHANCE SO KEPT IT IN.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO START OFF A NEW WEEK.
ALONG WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE WARMER TO HOT CONDITIONS
MAKING A RETURN. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S EAST TO MID 90S WEST. A TAD WARMER MONDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 90 EAST INTO MID 90S WEST. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL BOOST APPARENT OR HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 90S EAST TO 102 WEST SUNDAY. THOSE VALUES INCREASE ON
MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S EAST TO 107 WEST AND OVER
GREATER HUNTSVILLE. AREA COVERAGE OF 105 DEGREE AND WARMER IS TOO
SMALL TO JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS JUNCTURE. BUT WE CANNOT
RULE OUT THAT ONE MAY NEEDED SHOULD THE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
IN ANY CASE, THE HEAT COULD BECOME DANGEROUS FOR THOSE PERFORMING
WORK OUTDOORS. PLEASE DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, STAY OUT OF THE SUN
IF POSSIBLE AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN US. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
KEEPING MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 97-104 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HEAT
SAFETY AND IF POSSIBLE LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ONE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FORECAST IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS MORE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HENCE, POPS HAVE DECREASED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE, COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. LOWER VSBYS WERE INCLUDED FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
10-15Z WHERE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...25
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