480
FXUS64 KHUN 130837
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
337 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- NWS HEATRISK VALUES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MAJOR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND URBAN AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TO THE LOW 70S PRIMARILY IN
NORTHERN AL. CALM WINDS AND PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR LIGHT FOG FORMATION IN AREAS WITH RECENT WET SOILS
CAUSED BY SHOWERS YESTERDAY. WHILE NOT AS PREVALENT AS IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, SHALLOW LIGHT FOG WAS OBSERVED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN PORTIONS OF THE NARROW VALLEYS IN THE EAST
AND ALONG THE ELK RIVER VALLEY PRIMARILY. FURTHER PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE
OR PROBLEMATIC. ANY FOG PRESENT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SW WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY, AS THE PATTERN AND ENVIRONMENT BECOME MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TN VALLEY.
WITH THAT SAID, A SMALL SHOWER/STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLATEAU, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA, THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN HEAT ONCE AGAIN, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HEATRISK VALUES
AND WET-BULB GLOBE TEMPS LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THRESHOLDS FOR
CONSIDERATION OF A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, THOSE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE IMPACTS OF HEAT SHOULD CONSIDER
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TRACKS EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
INFLUENCED BY DRIER AIR OVER THE APPALACHIANS RATHER THAN A FETCH
FROM THE GULF. THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HEAT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF AND COMPOUNDING THE HEAT
DANGER. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BRING HEAT INDICES UP TO
THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS
RANGE, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE HEAT INDICES
AROUND THAT 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD BECOME MORE LIKELY. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER MUCH OF THE SAME AS RIDGING
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO
THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. ESE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR
AND ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH HEAT BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT
AND SUN SAFETY.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE RIDGING OVER THE SE LOOKS
TO RETROGRADE. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT EXITS IN THE MODELS REGARDED IF AND WHEN
THIS FRONT COULD COME THROUGH. AS SUCH, ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES IN
FRIDAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY REGARDING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
NEARLY NEARLY A TEN DEGREE SPREAD WIDELY SHOWN IN THE MODELS. SHOULD
THE FRONT NEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A SWATH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED JUST ADJACENT TO KHSV
YESTERDAY, BRINGING HEIGHTENED CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF LGT
FOG FORMATION ALONG THOSE SWATHS, THUS, A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG WAS
INCLUDED AT KHSV BETWEEN 10-12Z. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
UNCERTAIN, AND MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS FOR THE KHSV TAF BEFORE
12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KDW
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