354
FXUS64 KHUN 150331
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM ON
TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) NWS HEATRISK VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AL (AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN) THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
AFTER CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR, BELIEVE THAT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD LARGELY
BE CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WE HAVE SEEN
IN RECENT NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 70S.
A BIT OF A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND HEIGHT RISES REINFORCE HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE TN VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 90S IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER NW AL AND
URBAN AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH
8 PM TUESDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT AND FOR THOSE
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP DRIER CONDITIONS FLOWING
INTO THE AREA, AND RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE LESS THAN
10%.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WE WILL MAINTAIN A HOT AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND
WHILE THIS HEAT WAVE IS RELATIVELY DRY COMPARED TO RECENT ONES,
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH HUMIDITY PRESENT TO BRING HEAT INDICES
UP TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PLEASE DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS OUR PRIMARY THREAT THIS WEEK. IF SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS PLEASE DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT BREATHABLE
CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. REMEMBER TO
NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LATE THIS WEEK THE ANCHORED RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP AROUND WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE NOW NOT AS CERTAIN ON WHAT THE PATH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE LOW WILL BE AS IT IS SUGGESTING IT SLOWS DOWN THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY AND STALLS IT OUT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN LEADS TO A GREATER ASSUMPTION THAT THE FRONT
WELL TO OUR NORTH THAT DRAPES OVER INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE PERSISTENT
SFC HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE IT TO BECOME MORE OF A
WEDGE FRONT FOR US ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPS AND POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE PATTERN THAN ENDS UP TAKING
SHAPE. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TEMP TREND WITH
MODELS FAVORING HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE 80S ON MONDAY AS MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) MOVE IN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT/VAR WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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