309
FXUS64 KHUN 151033
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 248 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM ON TODAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) NWS HEATRISK VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AL (AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN) THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEING COMMON. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105-109 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.
NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) IMPACT FROM HEAT TODAY. THIS WILL POSE A DANGER FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE
TO THE HEAT OR WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION. PLEASE
PRACTICE COMMON SENSE HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WE WILL MAINTAIN A HOT AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND
WHILE THIS HEAT WAVE IS RELATIVELY DRY COMPARED TO RECENT ONES,
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH HUMIDITY PRESENT TO BRING HEAT INDICES
UP TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PLEASE DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS OUR PRIMARY THREAT THIS WEEK. IF SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS PLEASE DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT BREATHABLE
CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. REMEMBER TO
NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LATE THIS WEEK THE ANCHORED RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP AROUND WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE NOW NOT AS CERTAIN ON WHAT THE PATH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE LOW WILL BE AS IT IS SUGGESTING IT SLOWS DOWN THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY AND STALLS IT OUT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN LEADS TO A GREATER ASSUMPTION THAT THE FRONT
WELL TO OUR NORTH THAT DRAPES OVER INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE PERSISTENT
SFC HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE IT TO BECOME MORE OF A
WEDGE FRONT FOR US ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPS AND POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE PATTERN THAN ENDS UP TAKING
SHAPE. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TEMP TREND WITH
MODELS FAVORING HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE 80S ON MONDAY AS MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) MOVE IN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ076-096.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24
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