527
FXUS64 KHUN 151409
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 909 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM TODAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) NWS HEATRISK VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4)
VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AL (AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN) THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
STRONG AND WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS SITUATED OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH, WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE STRONG
RIDGE FEATURED MAXIMUM HEIGHT VALUES OF 597 DECAMETERS, WHICH
WILL AMPLIFY TO 600 DECAMETERS ON WED WHILE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDWEEK WHILE BUILDING
MORE TO THE SW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE A SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU. WITH STRONG
SUPPRESSION PROVIDED BY UPPER RIDGING, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY. HIGHS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S (CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW PLACES REACHING 100 DEGREES). A CRITICAL ITEM PLAYING INTO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE THE DEWPOINTS. AT THE PRESENT, DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE LOWER 70S. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THEM REMAINING
THERE, THEN MIXING OUT AND FALLING TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL HELP
"COOL" APPARENT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL, THEY SHOULD RISE TO
AND ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR SIZABLE PORTIONS OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THEREFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE, VALID FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
AFTER A HOT DAY, TEMPERATURES UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S NE ALABAMA TO MID 70S NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT VALUES APPEAR WILL STAY SEPARATED
ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE SW AS
WE GO THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THUS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 105 DEGREES. WE WILL EVALUATE THIS THINKING,
IF THE NEW NBM COMING IN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TREND
WARMER, WE WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
OTHERWISE REPEAT FORECAST WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS FORECAST FOR THU WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S, AND DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70, WHICH WOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN THOUGH WE MAY NOT HAVE OFFICIAL ADVISORIES
ACTIVE, AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL PRACTICE HEAT ALLEVIATION
TACTICS, LIKE AVOIDING DIRECT SUN EXPOSURE FOR AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE, DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER, AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LATE THIS WEEK THE ANCHORED RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN AS A CUT OFF LOW MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA. WHAT REMAINS OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP AROUND WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE NOW NOT AS CERTAIN ON WHAT THE PATH AND TRAJECTORY OF
THE LOW WILL BE AS IT IS SUGGESTING IT SLOWS DOWN THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY AND STALLS IT OUT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN LEADS TO A GREATER ASSUMPTION THAT THE FRONT
WELL TO OUR NORTH THAT DRAPES OVER INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE PERSISTENT
SFC HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE IT TO BECOME MORE OF A
WEDGE FRONT FOR US ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPS AND POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE PATTERN THAN ENDS UP TAKING
SHAPE. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TEMP TREND WITH
MODELS FAVORING HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE 80S ON MONDAY AS MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) MOVE IN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ001>007.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ076-096.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24
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