787
FXUS64 KHUN 161044
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) HEAT IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOCALIZED EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) IMPACTS MAY OCCUR IN
URBANIZED AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 35 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
A BUILDING HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY,
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. ANY LOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHEAST ALABAMA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW AREAS POTENTIALLY MAKING A
RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
AT/ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
SATURDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW. THUS, MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL POSE A DANGER FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT OR
WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION. PLEASE PRACTICE COMMON SENSE
HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS! OTHERWISE,
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL AGAIN SUPPRESS CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN, RESULTING IN A RAIN-FREE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK AND DESPITE IT
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
THE "HEAT DOME" UNDERNEATH IT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NWS HEATRISK HIGHLIGHTS
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) IMPACTS EACH DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LOCATED EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) IMPACTS WERE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS URBANIZED AREAS SUCH AS THE HUNTSVILLE/DECATUR METRO.
AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
PEAKING AROUND 105 DEGREES. WHETHER WE REACH THE 105 DEGREE
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT MATTER MUCH TO THOSE OUTDOORS IN THIS
LATE SEASON HEATWAVE AS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY. PLEASE DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS OUR PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH LATE WEEK. IF
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS PLEASE DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT
BREATHABLE CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE.
REMEMBER TO NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT IMPACTS, THERE MAY ALSO BE A VERY LOW,
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. STILL THINK WE'LL
LARGELY FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FRIDAY (5-10%) AND SATURDAY (10-20%). AS
ALWAYS IN THESE SUMMER PATTERNS, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH STORM THAT
DEVELOPS AS IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE ANCHORED RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED TO OUR WEST AS THE WONDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS FL AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS ARE EVEN MORE SPLIT
TODAY ON WHAT THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THIS LOW WILL BE. IT
SEEMS TO STALL FOR A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NE GULF LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EITHER SLIDING WESTWARD, OR WEAKENING AND
FADING OUT COMPLETELY. REGARDLESS, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE
LOWER 90S IN NE AL/PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, AND THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDEX VALUES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SITTING AROUND 100 DEGREES, HOWEVER
WE WILL REMAIN IN A LEVEL 2-3 HEATRISK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. SO
ENSURE TO BE HEAT SAFE/SMART. SLOW DOWN, HYDRATE AND NEVER LEAVE
PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FEATURE. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TRY TO PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. WILL SEE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN
(20-45%) ON MONDAY, BUT WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY STALLING ON
TUESDAY, WE WON'T SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT HAVE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE. THIS WILL AT LEAST HELP THE TEMPS LOWER A TAD WITH SOME
SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT SE/SSE WINDS
AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24
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