582
FXUS64 KHUN 171601
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1101 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) HEAT IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOCALIZED EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) IMPACTS MAY OCCUR IN
URBANIZED AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
AFTER A COMFORTABLE MORNING IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70,
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AT THIS HOUR. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
WEST THROUGH GA, AL AND MS. THE 5H HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS
AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN ITS SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE 8H HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN AR LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
THIS LAYER AS A TUTT LOW APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 10% TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST AREAS. A FEW UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED IN FAR NORTHWEST AL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70-73F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST PREVAILS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
5H SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST TX AND THE 8H RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO AL. THE TUTT LOW WILL CROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SATURDAY INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. THERE IS A 10-20% OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE
CHANCES BELOW 5-10%. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 95-100F RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EAST OF
I-65 (COOLEST ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT S-SW FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
OZARKS INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A
WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
M-U 90S (IN LOWER ELEVATIONS) AND AN ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THE WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
EVOLVE INTO A FRONTAL WAVE AS IT LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY, WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED BOTH PERIODS AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. WHETHER OR NOT THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD (AND BRINGS OUR FORECAST
AREA A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY)
REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE, AND WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. REGARDLESS,
WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS (U80S-L90S) BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17
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