075
FXUS64 KHUN 201641 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1141 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN STORM IMPACTS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S EACH DAY ACCOMPANIED BY HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-104
DEGREES.
- A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 80S MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE CENTER OF A TUTT LOW THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF AMERICA HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER
TODAY.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME
WEAKER FORCING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AS INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DCAPE AND MIXED LAYER CAPE REMAINS
HIGH IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. NOT SURE IF WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRONGER
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STEEPER THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. IF ANY STRONGER STORMS OCCUR, DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATED
LIKE YESTERDAY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE HAD MORNING FOG IN
THE VALLEY AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY).
GIVEN THE HIGHER CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WOULD BE IN
THOSE SAME AREAS LATER TODAY, EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONGER LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA DURING THAT PERIOD. SHEAR STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK,
BUT THETA-E LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE FRONT AND A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
(3000-4000 J/KG) SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. WITH DCAPE AROUND OR OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
THETA-E LAPSE RATES AROUND 30 DEGREES, A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS (PRODUCING DAMAGING MICROBURSTS) LOOKS REASONABLE.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT WITH PWATS AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED, SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR WITH SLOW MOVING OR
STATIONARY STORMS. HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED MORE BY CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE 93 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE ON MONDAY. SOME VERY
LOCALIZED HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 COULD BE MEET IN SE
PORTIONS OF MADISON COUNTY OR NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY, BUT DO NOT
LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEAT ADVISORY
PRODUCTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY
AND INCREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS EXPECTED, HIGHS SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 95 AND 104 DEGREES ONE MORE
DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A WELCOMED
PATTERN CHANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AS
A RESULT, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, NORTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. WE BEGIN TO REALLY
FEEL THE DRIER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE.
A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO
INTO THE DAYTIME. DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGHER INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE TAF GIVEN
HIGH UNCERTAINTY. STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS SHOULD FADE THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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